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Predictive News Fail: TAK, not DHKC

November 5, 2010

I mentioned earlier this week that I believed Sunday’s suicide bombing in Taksim was probable by DHKC. It looks like I was incorrect:

The group, the Kurdistan Freedom Falcons, or TAK, said on its website that the Oct. 31 bombing was carried out by one of its commanders on his own initiative.

“on his own initiative” usually means, “dude did something off the deep end, but hey, we’ll claim credit.” The Kurdistan Freedom Falcons, besides being the best-named terrorist group still around now that the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Elam are gone, are also a splinter off the PKK. They share some organization background and logistics with the PKK, but they tend to select their attacks themselves. This isn’t like the al-Qaeda “franchising” methodology. PKK does not respect or condone TAK attacks. So Karayilan is not being disingenuous when he apologizes.

TAK is relatively small fry. A throwback to the 1980’s when nihilist terrorist attacks were still cool. They also serve the purpose of making the PKK and their affiliates abroad look a bit more palatable.

So this is what happens when you play percentages. I thought betting odds were on this being DHKC, but sometimes the odds are bucked. This won’t stop me from making bold predictions, and hopefully it won’t stop you from reading. Occam’s Razor sometimes fails, to the great chagrin of those wacky, plucky, heliocentrists everywhere.

One Comment leave one →
  1. Ben permalink
    November 5, 2010 4:59 pm

    Wait, it was a splinter group…well, um, I’m just going to go ahead and give myself a +1.

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